Course Overview

Decision analysis provides powerful tools for dealing with complex decisions that involve multiple objectives and/or uncertainty. In this course, we will learn a useful decision process to identify and overcome the challenges of decision making. We will introduce some fundamental concepts, models and methods for decision analysis in various situations such as decision with multiple objectives, decisions under uncertainty and decisions with different decision makers and different/conflict decision objectives, namely game problems. We will make practices to solve some real-world decision problems through group works.

Learning Achievement

Day 1. Value-focused decision structure
We will introduce a value-focused decision structure at first, and the basic elements that affect decisions. After the analysis of the decision elements, we will learn how to structure these decision elements into the model for a systematic analysis of decision-making issues.

Day 2. Multiple objectives decision
We will consider the situation where decision alternatives are evaluated by using multiple objectives. We will introduce the basic concepts and techniques to determine attributes and make choice.

Day 3. Decision under uncertainties
We will consider the situation where decisions are made under uncertainties. We will introduce a basic tool in decision analysis, which is called decision trees, to deal with this kind of decision problems.

Day 4. Interactive Decision
We will learn how to deal with strategic decision problems that involve multiple decision makers with different objectives. Interactive decision problems are usually called game problems. We will introduce models and techniques to deal with this kind of decision problems.

Day 5. Group Presentation
Students will be asked to split into 3-4 person groups and to make group presentations on the application of value-focused thinking and a multi-criteria decision model in a business, social, political etc. situation.

Competence

[Problem Finding]
Anticipate problems
[Decision Making]
Gather information
Analytical orientation
Creative thinking
Strategic planning

Course prerequisites

Microsoft Windows system is required to use Excel spreadsheets.

Grading Philosophy

Active classroom participation: 20%
Individual reports: 30%
Group presentation: 50%

Course schedule

Course type

Lectures

Online Course Requirement

Instructor

Xu Hua

Other information

Identical to 0AFM506.
Lecture is conducted in English.
The style of lecture will be announced later Once registered for a course, a student may withdraw from the course without penalty by notifying the instructor before the THIRD CLASS MEETING of the course. Absence without notice may result in a failing grade and the student may receive a “D.” Courses will be closed for registration after the second class
meeting.

Site for Inquiry

Link to the syllabus provided by the university