Course Overview

Risk analysis is defined as a systematic process to describe risk, i.e. to present an informative risk picture. Risk analysis is incorporated primarily in risk management and risk-based decision making. The objective of this course is to learn the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and a variety of models and methods to deal with risk identification, risk assessment and risk management problems. A risk filtering, ranking and management (RFRM) process will be introduced and applied to solve some practical risk management problems through group works.

Learning Achievement

Day 1. Introduction of Risk Analysis
Risk analysis is a part of risk management. In this class, we will introduce the basic concepts and the process of risk management and find the position of risk analysis in the whole process. Then, we will learn a method, called hierarchical holographic modeling method, to identify risks.

Day 2. Risk Analysis Process
In this class, we will learn risk analysis process which include risk identification, risk measurement/estimation and risk treatment. Students are required to conduct a group work to construct risk identification models to their interested problems by using the method introduced in the first class. Then, some models and techniques will be introduced to measure/estimate the causes and the consequences of risks.

Day 3. Risk Analysis Methods
In this class, we will learn a selection of methods that can be used when carrying out a risk analysis, which may include, for example, reference lotteries, the quantile method, coarse risk analysis, failure modes and effects analysis, trade-off analysis, etc..

Day 4. Risk Analysis Using Crystal Ball
In this class, we will learn how to use Crystal Ball, a software package, for the simulation analysis of risk.

Day 5. Group presentation
Students will be asked to make group presentations on the application of Risk Analysis in a business, social, political etc. situation.

Competence

[Problem Finding]
Anticipate problems
[Decision Making]
Gather information
Analytical orientation
Creative thinking
[Implication]
Risk management

Course prerequisites

Microsoft Windows system is required for installing Crystal Ball free trial software.

Grading Philosophy

Active classroom participation: 20%
Exercise: 30%
Group presentation: 50%

Course schedule

Course type

Lectures

Online Course Requirement

Instructor

Xu Hua

Other information

Identical to 0AFM507.
Lecture is conducted in English.
The style of lecture will be announced later Once registered for a course, a student may withdraw from the course without penalty by notifying the instructor before the THIRD CLASS MEETING of the course. Absence without notice may result in a failing grade and the student may receive a “D.” Courses will be closed for registration after the second class
meeting.

Site for Inquiry

Link to the syllabus provided by the university